Hillary Will Drop Out by June 15 (HRC Staffer)

From Lawrence O'Donnell:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-o donnell/hillary-will-drop-out-by_b_10062 5.html

--------------------------------------

A senior campaign official and Clinton confidante has told me that there will be a Democratic nominee by June 15. He could not bring himself to say the words "Hillary will drop out by June 15," but that is clearly what he meant. I kept saying, "So, Hillary will drop out by June 15," and he kept saying, "We will have a nominee by June 15." He stressed what a reasonable person Hillary is.

Everything about our conversation implied that he had already had this reality-based discussion with Hillary. He said the Clinton campaign plan is to collect as many votes and delegates as they can right through June 3, then take no more than a week or so to make their case to the superdelegates. Nothing he said indicated that he actually expected the superdelegates to move to Hillary in the week after the final election. The Clinton campaign has not lost its grip on reality. Yes, Clinton spokespersons publicly seem to be lost on gravity-free planet Clinton, but privately they know the end is near.



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they know, they will still try and they should (none / 0)

also, if she strikes a more positive tone publicly, and racks up some impressive wins, she will be placed to ask, even demand, the VP slot... It's likely her last chance at presidency, and if I were her, I would be jockeying for VP privately


DEMOCRATIC 08!
by rigsoHC on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:44:33 PM EST

LBJ: darlin', I'm a gambling man (none / 0)

What's that LBJ quote about a veep's chances of being president?


by catfish1 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:50:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LBJ: darlin', I'm a gambling man (2.00 / 1)

something along the lines of 'i'm a gambling man, onein four die in office" even outside the horrible specter of death, it is also an almost guarantee to winning nomination when President is done


DEMOCRATIC 08!
by rigsoHC on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:54:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well death is ugly (none / 0)

so I won't bring up the LBJ quote in mixed company.


by catfish1 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:17:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

I don't think she'd take VP and she'd be foolish to do such. Either way she'll end up as a Senator from NY. Why bother?


No longer a Democrat, now proudly an independent voter!
by Ga6thDem on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:30:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Drop Out by June 15 (HRC Staffer) (none / 0)

I'll believe it when CNN has the announcement live...

That said, continue on...  I would have liked this to have been done a while ago, but that's only because I'm tired of McCain having a free ride...


McCain/Palin... even scarier than Bush/Cheney... and that's saying something!
by JenKinFLA on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:45:13 PM EST

Re: Hillary Will Drop Out by June 15 (HRC Staffer) (2.00 / 2)

Yea its sad.

The Liberal  Activists hated so much by many members here, along with the DNC (hated to)  have been lobbing BOMBS at McCain day after day.

They are sticking, but he is not catching fire.

I hope that the DLC and their new found "Lunch box working class" demographic have some kind of attack planned on McCain.

Im sure we will here crickets from Harold Ford.

Can we actually even IMAGINE the DLC paying for an attack add on the republicans?


Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:47:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Drop Out by June 15 (HRC Staffer) (none / 0)

Wow unity from you way to go....

Helping McCain any way you can with discontent in the democratic party


by DTaylor on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:55:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Drop Out by June 15 (HRC Staffer) (2.00 / 1)

Wow more right wing framing.

All I am showing is DISSAPOINTMENT with the HRC wing of the party.

You guys have done NOTHING to attack McCain.

The MSM was practically making fun of HRC for running against Obama, and Obama running against McCain.

The simple fact is the DLC is doing NOTHING for Democrats to win this fall, they only care about there last hope to steal this nomination.


Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:08:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Drop Out by June 15 (HRC Staffer) (none / 0)

It isn't completely inconceivable that Hillary picks up some delegates in the remaining contests. If she seats MI/FL as is, it might be conceivable for her to be ahead in pledged, at which point supers can back her.

This is a stretch on top of a stretch on top of a stretch, but we're talking about the Presidency, here. This is history and fate-of-the-world type of stuff; a small chance is a chance.


by mattw on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:45:31 PM EST

Re: Hillary Will Drop Out by June 15 (HRC Staffer) (2.00 / 1)

From what I understand she needs to win remaining states, INCLUDING florida and michicgan by at least 80%.

I dont know the number because once it passed 70 it is kinda the same number.


Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:48:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Drop Out by June 15 (HRC Staffer) (2.00 / 1)

At some point Hillary needs to realize that what is best for her isn't what is best for the Democratic Party.  I was hoping she would leave after May 20th. I don't see the need to hang around for three more weeks.    


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:50:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Drop ) (none / 0)

I am just wondering are you going to tell HRC supporters just what is best for the Democratic Party. Would that include kicking her and her supporters out of the party?

david


by giusd on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:03:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Drop ) (none / 0)

What is best for the Democratic party is to have a nominee.  Keeping this thing going for six weeks serves no purpose.  

HRC supporters are a sensitive bunch.  


Consider that everything which happens, happens justly, and if thou observest carefully, thou wilt find it to be so. -Marcus Aurelius
by Blue Neponset on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:21:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Drop Out by June 15 (HRC Staffer) (2.00 / 1)

It is inconceivable I am an ardent supporter but I have played with the number and it is inconceivable for her to win pledged.

I really hate to admit that though.


by del on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:57:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Drop Out by June 15 (HRC Staffer) (none / 0)

Yup.  She can close the margin quite a bit.  But she can get there.  


by Same As It Ever Was on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:42:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

er "can't" (none / 0)


by Same As It Ever Was on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:42:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Drop Out by June 15 (HRC Staffer) (2.00 / 1)

Oops... I did the math down below, but misplaced it.  Bottom line:

KY/WV: Clinton+30
PR: Clinton+20
OR: Obama+5
MT/SD: Obama+10

and counting MI/FL in full, Obama still finishes about 70 pledged delegates ahead.  There's just no way to make up the gap.


by Rorgg on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:08:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Is this with or without FL/MI? (none / 0)

..and are we assuming that none of the uncommitted delegates go to Obama?


by rhetoricus on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:03:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is this with or without FL/MI? (none / 0)

When I did it I assumed he only got the 36 uncommitted delegates he got at the MI state convention.  I can't tell from looking at these #s whether this gives him the uncommitteds


by Same As It Ever Was on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:43:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is this with or without FL/MI? (none / 0)

I gave him most but not all of the uncommitteds, figured Clinton could poach a few.


by Rorgg on Wed May 07, 2008 at 10:59:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is this with or without FL/MI? (none / 0)

Thanks, gotcha.


by rhetoricus on Fri May 09, 2008 at 11:17:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Drop Out by June 15 (HRC Staffer) (2.00 / 1)

The point is... bring some money in, spend less than you're bringing in, try to pay down the debt in the process, and when it's all over see where you stand. Sounds reasonable.


_____________
changiness
by lizardbox on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:48:00 PM EST

Re: Hillary Will Drop Out by June 15 (HRC Staffer) (2.00 / 1)

I think, this also means, expect a campaign focused on attacking McCain, and not the Presidential Nominee of the Democratic Party, Senator Barack Obama.

If the stretch beyond that stretch has a stretch, she needs to not piss off any more supers and have them jump to Obama.

If she stays clean, I see no problem letting it go on, she can retire some debt and do whatever jocking she wants to to for VP, or input to VP or what-ever....


On Nov 4th, Barack Obama officially ends the Southern Strategy....
by WashStateBlue on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:49:07 PM EST

She's in through the next 6 contests (2.00 / 1)

is another way to say it.


by catfish1 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 01:52:11 PM EST

Re: Hillary Will Drop Out by June 15 (HRC Staffer) (none / 0)

If I had not been hearing over and over and over and over that Senator Clinton was done for during this ENTIRE primary season I might believe this. But please. She is still here.

All this does is making people more likely to vote for Senator McCain Or not vote at all.

Senator Clinton's supporters don't live in a vacume. They have been watching and supporting Senator Clinton through out this process.

It's a close vote.  


by 12 dogs and a blog on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:05:26 PM EST

Reality check (none / 0)

Okay, as it stands today, the count is:

O 1589.5 - 1427.5 C
add in Florida
67 - 105
and Michigan's a little tricky, but let's say that Clinton snags 3 of the uncommitteds, and the rest go to Obama -- that seems to jibe with reports from their selection meeting.
52 - 76
That takes us to
O 1708.5 - 1608.5 C *

Let's give Clinton 30-point wins in West Virginia:
*10 - 18

and Kentucky:
18 - 33
and Obama a 5-point win in Oregon:
27 - 25

To take us on May 20 to...
O 1763.5 - 1684.5 C

Then, let's say she pulls a 20-point win in Puerto Rico
22 - 33
And Obama wins by 10 in Montana
9 - 7
and South Dakota
8 - 7

The pledged delegate total at the end would sit at
O 1802.5 - 1731.5 C

There just aren't enough delegates left for her to make up the pledged delegate count, even with Michigan and Florida counting in full.


by Rorgg on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:06:51 PM EST

Re: Reality check (none / 0)

I think she would still need a 80+ margin in each state left, including the ones who dont count MI/FL.


Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:09:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Reality check (none / 0)

Actually, reports from Michigan indicate that Obama has snagged 2/3 of the uncommitted, with the other going to union slates that could potentially swing to HRC.  That would decrease the gap you describe by some 30 delegates (15 less for Obama, and 15 more for Hillary.)  That would leave the margin at about 50, or possibly less than that if Hillary does a little better in the remaining states than you have projected.  Plus there are Edwards pledged delegates, who could conceivably follow Edwards direction on who to support.  In other words, by some scenarios (albeit unlikely), even the pledged delegate count could get very tight, without even looking at the role of the super delegates.

Plus, Hillary has received the endorsement of  15 super delegates in Michigan and Florida so far, and Obama only 5 (and there are many more in those two states who haven't endorsed yet), so that could come into play too.

These are not likely scenarios, but they are far from impossible, especially if some kind of surprises take place in the next 4 weeks that make Hillary look more attractive to the party vis-a-vis Obama.


by markjay on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:31:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Reality check (none / 0)

It's also possible that I can win the lottery, but I wouldn't bet my retirement on it...

The MI delegation will be decided at the DNC meeting at the end of may.  She'll get a sizable majority of the delegates, but not like the numbers you are suggesting...

MI and FL will probably also be penalized 1/2 their delegates just like the Republicans did.  Hillary people can cry all they want to about that, it's a remedy that has precedent.


It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)
by LordMike on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:40:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Reality check (none / 0)

If Clinton wins the nomination by not only seating Michigan but grabbing a chunk of the uncommitteds on top of that, how does she then get Obama supporters to vote for her in November?


Beat McCain!
by thezzyzx on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:42:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Reality check (none / 0)

So, even under your incredibly rosy "what-if," he still has a lead in pledged delegates.

From the actual polling numbers available, I'm being slightly generous to Clinton here.  The bottom line doesn't change: even with everything going well, she can not win the pledged delegate total.  It's a dead metric for her.


by Rorgg on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:48:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Drop Out by June 15 (HRC Staffer) (none / 0)

This is the same Lawrence O'Donnell whose sources told him Rove would face 22 indictments, right?


by Jim J on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:15:16 PM EST

Re: Hillary Will Drop Out by June 15 (HRC Staffer) (none / 0)

Even more reason to vote out the republicans in 2008.

What, do you diagree, you dont think Rove committed crimes.

Wow, trashing a journalist who has the balls to go after Rove,  real classy.


Unable to rec or rate

Read this: http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/15/1427 30/254

by GeorgeP922 on Wed May 07, 2008 at 02:21:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary Will Drop Out by June 15 (HRC Staffer) (none / 0)

I don't think anyone is suggesting the HRC wing be kicked out of the Democratic party.  Every reasonable Democrat knows we need every vote to win in November.

You wouldn't really consider voting for John McCain, would you?  For more of the same in Iraq, on health care, etc. etc. etc. ?


"The only way I can lose this election is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy."
by AK Democrat on Wed May 07, 2008 at 03:32:40 PM EST

Huff Po is like MSNBC (none / 0)

they are both shills for Obama - so until I read this somewhere else, I don't believe it.


by nikkid on Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:15:52 PM EST


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